Is Buffett Playing Long-Term 4D Chess While the Market Panics? Let’s Break Down the Numbers
Alright, let’s be real—if you’ve been watching the markets lately, you might be asking: "Should I stick with the S&P 500 or throw some trust (and dollars) behind Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway?"
In 2025, that question matters more than ever. The S&P 500 is down 4.8% year-to-date, while Berkshire Hathaway is up 9.41%. That’s a 15-point spread—and a loud message from the market.
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Benjamin Graham
Buffett might not win every quarter, but right now, he’s ahead—and for good reason.
What Happened to the Magnificent 7?
In 2024, the Magnificent 7 tech stocks (Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet) were kings. Fast forward to 2025, and the crown looks shaky.
Tech Stock Headlines:
NVIDIA (NVDA): Post-AI boom slowdown after DeepSeek crisis
Tesla (TSLA): Political blowback + declining China/EU sales
Meta & Alphabet: Struggling to justify ad budgets in a cooling economy
Even Goldman Sachs slashed its S&P 500 year-end target to 6,200. Chief strategist David Kostin quipped, "The Magnificent 7 has turned into the Maleficent 7."
Berkshire’s Old-School Strategy Is Working
Buffett is sticking to his classic playbook:
Hold cash (30–40% reserves!)
Invest in quality
Ignore the hype
Top Holdings in 2025:
Apple (AAPL), Bank of America (BAC), American Express (AXP) — all down ~10%
Coca-Cola (KO) — up 10% and steady as ever
Berkshire Hathaway overall — up 9.41%
CNBC: “Berkshire Hathaway’s cash stockpile makes it the ultimate bargain hunter in a volatile market.”
My Move: Why I’m Buying Berkshire B Shares
Let’s be real—I can’t afford Class A shares. But B shares? That’s my lane.
I’ve been slowly adding to my BRK.B holdings whenever it dips into my target range. Meanwhile, I keep a smaller allocation in some of the tech darlings—because, hey, they still have upside.
But Berkshire? That’s my ballast. My slow-and-steady friend who never panics.
What’s Next for the Market?
The rest of 2025 could go anywhere:
Another AI surge?
Rate cuts?
Election market jitters?
But in a world of noise, Buffett’s consistency stands out.
Final Thoughts: Berkshire or S&P 500?
Goldman Sachs sees a 5% gain in the S&P 500 by year-end. CNBC says Berkshire is the market’s most prepared buyer. WSJ warns that tech will determine the S&P’s fate.
If you want stability, Berkshire makes a strong case. If you want growth, S&P still holds long-term weight.
Let’s Talk
Are you sticking with the S&P 500?
Doubling down on Berkshire Hathaway?
Riding the waves of the Magnificent (or Maleficent) 7?
Drop your thoughts below. Let’s make sense of this wild market together.
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